I picked out my premium players first – and that was probably my first mistake. With Media Madness just beginning, I thought now would be the time to get on some players before an inevitable rise. After canvassing opinion, and discounting Neymar because of the current injury/court case risks, I split my money between Messi, Pogba, Sancho, Mbappe and Sterling.
Of course Media Madness has been more random than expected so far and the luxury assets have (largely) failed to deliver. The question marks over Pogba haven’t helped and generally I think we’re seeing a closing up between the middle of the market and the very top. Still, these are long-term holds and I’m not worried about the current negative values.
Messi remains nailed-on for PB once the season starts and I do think he’s got one more season in him where his dividend yield can outstrip his capital deprecation – but that does carry a bit of risk and timing is everything with this hold.
Mbappe and Sancho are both probably on the cusp of their best seasons yet. Mbappe is easily the best young player in the world, playing in an easy league. His involvement in the game doesn’t bring him a lot of dividends in FI terms but his media pull is starting to increase, he’s coming out of the shadow of Neymar, and I think we’ll see him transferring to a more challenging league next year.
Sancho attracts the English player premium but is actually pretty good in FI terms too, hitting scores over 150 on 5 occasions last season, as well as notching 13 goals and a massive 14 assists. Any changes to the PB matrix will most likely benefit Sancho so now seems to be the right time to buy in, especially as he’s almost certain to move to the EPL at some stage in the future.
Sterling is a solid hold, especially now he’s the England ‘media darling’ and Pogba is still bringing in the dividends for the transfer that never happens.
The one thing to note is that premium players do need a large rise, or a high dividend yield, to compensate for the 2% commission at the point of sale. For example, Pogba needs a 14p rise, just to break even. That makes this end of the market tricky to trade in and out of – perhaps making holds ‘safer’, but also potentially limiting profitability.
You can see the progress so far on the Premium assets page. Have I hit the nail on the head or am I wrong? Let me know.