Week 40 – the end of the challenge

40 weeks in, with no football for the foreseeable future and the whole world going to hell in a handcart, this seems an appropriate time to draw a line under the 3 funds challenge.

When I get chance, possibly while under isolation measures or just dying from the boredom of no football, I’ll do a proper review of the season and what I’ve learn from doing this challenge. In a nutshell though, I’ve learnt that the different asset classes (premium, youth/speculation, PB holds) tend to peak at different times of the season so the best traders probably know when to get off one ride and onto the next. I’ve also learnt that a diverse port is the best protection against unexpected circumstances.

In the current climate of fear and uncertainty, traders have put their money into premium holds again – the FI equivalent of buying gold. With MB the only game in town now, it was completely predictable that the top end would get a boost. On Sunday night, when the writing was well and truly on the wall, I made the decision to instant sell my De Bruyne shares for a loss and put my money into Bruno Fernandes. This was a good decision and I more than made back the money I lost from ISing. With Fernandes pulling in the dividends and rapidly rising, alongside big bumps for Kane, Sancho and Mbappe, the Premium fund had an absolutely storming week.

The same can’t be said of the other funds. The Performance holds were absolutely battered this week and I couldn’t get out of most of them, only managing to sell Ocampos before FI widened the spreads and started turning IS on and off.

I’ve got no gripes with FI about this – it was absolutely the right call. We need money to stay in the Index at the moment as trader panic could quickly snowball into a complete market collapse. The combination of carrot (double dividends, net buys bonus) and stick (40% spreads) has stabilised the market. We now just need to sit tight and wait it out.

The only riser in the Performance fund was Partey, off the back of some fairly credible transfer rumours. Likewise in the Potential fund, only Cherki managed to buck the trend. This fund saw some significant dips too, although the overall impact on my port was less as I’d reduced my holdings quite a bit already and managed to get out of another two players for a loss before FI pulled up the drawbridge (Rodrygo and Morlanes). Interestingly, the average drop across both those funds was 5.6% over the week.

This was balanced out by a 10% rise on the Premium fund, underlining the importance of not putting all your eggs in one basket.

Anyway, after 40 weeks, the 3 funds finished as follows:

  • Premiums: total profit of £1,347. ROI of 40.4%
  • Performance: total profit of £1,520. ROI of 45.6%
  • Potential: total profit of £1,624. ROI of 48.7%

Much closer than I imagined it would be but massively skewed by the recent situation. I’ve updated the individual fund pages as always so you can see the final position on each player I’m still holding.

So, in conclusion, I made the most money by backing youth and speculative holds in non-PB leagues – but not by much. At different points of the season, the other funds were well ahead – premiums flying at the beginning and again now, the performance holds flying when the dividends were boosted and again fairly recently. The beauty of the potential fund was that the players didn’t need to perform on the pitch to catch a rise, so they could hold their value during rough fixture periods and international breaks.

Although I’d never split my port quite so rigidly again, I think I’ll always hang onto some premium holds for the relative safety they bring, and I’ll trade in and out of PB-suited holds alongside favourable fixtures. The joy of FI is that there are many ways to play the game and win – even now at a time when there is no football at all. The most important thing is to enjoy it, rather than try and squeeze every last penny out of it. And, of course, to always gamble responsibility.

Thanks for following me on this journey. I really hope you’re all holding up ok.

Things are a bit crazy now but we will be fine in the end and FI will survive this too – have faith in the product. I do.

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