Week 38 – a tale of two traders

This week has been a tale of two traders. Those who have Bruno Fernandes in their port, and those who don’t.

I’m in the non-Bruno camp myself, making this a pretty tough week to say the least. Bruno’s 7-day rise is around 40% at the time of writing this, or £2.13 in cold hard cash. That sort of money has to come from somewhere and in this case it came from a number of out of fashion players taking a dip during the week.

Do I regret my decision to leave Bruno alone? Of course. Anyone talking down his price at the moment is most likely feeling the same. The truth is, I misjudged it – thinking his ceiling was around £5 and I’d missed the boat. As he’s showing suitability for PB and MB at the moment, a rise about £7 is actually pretty rationale so credit to those who saw this coming and jumped on, realising the boat hadn’t even left the harbour at that point.

Heading for £7.50 now, he’s out of my price range so he becomes another one I’m going to chalk off to experience. Can’t catch them all.

I’m also at the stage where I want to downsize my port a bit. I’ve got some bills to pay and don’t really want to wait until the end of the season to move out of some positions. My aim is to try to take fairly evenly from each of the funds, to maintain some parity for the purposes of the challenge, but things will be a little uneven for a while as I’m listing and waiting for sales to go through.

Reducing my holding of Premium players gives me a real headache as I don’t like to hold less than around 100 per player (another reason I’m staying away from Bruno for now). Sancho and Neymar are in line for a transfer tug-of-war this summer, Mbappe and De Bruyne have the potential to make a big impact at the Euros, and Sterling and Kane could turn out to be England’s saviours. But it’s easier to sell a rising player so I took the opportunity to offload 50 Kane while he was rising this week, coming away with a profit of around £31.

He wasn’t the only riser in that fund this week, Mbappe, Sterling and De Bruyne all had a good week too, with Mbappe and De Bruyne even bringing in some rare PB dividends for a change. Reducing my Kane shares looks like a loss on the spreadsheet but the fund is actually up £47.74 over the week.

The Performance fund is where I’ve got most of the players stuck in the sell queue at the moment so I’ve not managed to reduce my holding there at all. Especially as I couldn’t resist bringing in a few more players for possible cap app and divs through March, bringing in:

Gerard Moreno – Villareal play 3 of the bottom 4 during March and he’s a starter for Spain so that should support his price.
Thomas Partey – Atletico look likely to progress in the Champions League and rumours of an EPL summer transfer are building.
Florian Kainz – Cologne have incredibly kind fixtures coming up and are hitting a purple patch, and he looked underpriced.

I also took advantage of the dips and topped up on Kostic, Pellegrini, Rebic and Uth.

The fund finished up nearly £40 with standout performances this week from Gnabry (who is absolutely on fire at the moment) Aouar and the new additions of Kainz and Partey.

It’s a different story in the Potentials fund. I managed to move on some players – Oblyakov and Palacios for profit and Geiger for a loss. The issue with this fund is you never quite know when a youth player is going to ‘explode’. You can sit on them for months and nothing happens, which is a huge opportunity cost, so I think I need to do better at selling on a sudden rise – hence getting rid of Oblyakov and Geiger when I did.

This fund ended the week £169 down, with sizeable drops on Barrow, Gravenberch, Blas and several others. I topped up a little on Aouichiche and Oscar Rodriguez but in truth I’m not quite sure where the next youth rise will come from so I’m mostly keeping my powder dry for now.

Only one player in the fund made a profit during the week – Mollejo. I can’t see a real reason for that other than that he was the target of an aborted pump and dump scam which led to FI putting an absolutely massive spread on him, which I suppose protected his price when traders were scrabbling around to try and find money to feed into Bruno this week.

So all in all, an odd week for us non-Bruno holders. As I’m starting to reshape my portfolio, and coming towards the end of this challenge, I think I’m starting to get a feel for how I want to distribute my cash in future – perhaps more like 25% Premium, 50% Performance and 25% Potential (based on enjoyment factor plus earning potential). It would be great if FI would let us separate our ports into different funds like this in the future.

As always, the detail of who I’m holding is available on the individual fund pages if you’re curious. Happy trading!

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