Happy Divmas everyone! We’ve entered the next phase in FI’s development, a time when the dividends have been raised to a level that should be enough to return some logic to the product. This is the first ‘gold’ weekend under the new structure and today’s gold day is particularly interesting due to the low number of games taking place (19).
I was careful to use the word ‘should’ in my opening paragraph as I think it’s potentially quite easy to get carried away with the headline ‘57% rise in dividends’ and miss the nuances of how the increases have been applied. MB has had a consistent 50% across the board, so that’s nice and easy. PB on the otherhand, ranges from next to nothing on bronze days to a 200% increase to the star man position on gold days.
What that should mean in theory is that the absolutely cream of the crop should rise to the top of the Index now – the maybe dozen or so players who can genuinely compete on a regular basis for star man. This should stretch the Index as a whole and we’ll have to re-evaluate our thinking on what looks like a reasonable price. I think we’ll see some wild swings while traders get used to this, especially if FI are going to introduce a load of IPOs into the Index over the next few weeks as well. Buckle up!
One thing that is clear is that market sentiment at the moment continues to be against youth holds and very much stuck on high baseline PB players, particularly in the coveted attacking midfield position. Anyone who doesn’t look like posting big scores is getting dumped pretty quickly. This is reflected in my results for the week.
Starting with the good news, the Performance fund saw a significant rise again this week of £315. Sabitzer, Golovin and Depay were the stand out performers. I chopped Immobile from the fund for a profit of £27.09 – he’s been solid over the last month but he doesn’t offer much value outside of IPDs so I decided to be ruthless. I also said goodbye to Zielinski, who’s been a bit of a flop but at least made me a small profit, and Embolo who managed to get himself injured again and cost me £17.66 after instant selling.
Coming in to replace them are Kingsley Coman (£2.15) and Granit Xhaka (99p). Coman has the potential to post big PB scores but seemed to get missed in the initial wave of rises. He’s a rotation risk and an injury risk but does have good fixtures ahead of him (if Bayern can improve their form). Xhaka is a no-brainer for me at the moment with his MB potential and also an outside shout for PB with Switzerland having some soft games later this month.
The dividend changes made for a good week for the Premium fund as well, as traders identified that the biggest beneficiaries of the change would be the players who can regular post winning scores on gold days, like Neymar. As well as the Brazillian maestro, traders put their cash into Sterling, Kane and Mbappe. All of this lead to a total rise of £84.
Only Hudson-Odoi had a big drop during the week. Despite looking good on the pitch, he hasn’t done enough since injury to convince traders of his hefty price tag and simply isn’t getting enough minutes on the pitch from Lampard. If this doesn’t change quickly, I think I’ll have to cut my losses there.
It was another poor week for my young Potentials but they managed to turn a small profit of £21, thanks to huge rises on Odegaard and Tonali. Aside from them, it was a dire week.
I cut my losses on two of them, although I hovered over several more. In the end, I figured that some of the prices might be starting to bottom out so holding made more sense than selling. Only time will tel..
I pressed the instant sell button on Gravenberch, who I bought at a frankly ridiculous price (what was I thinking?) and ended up costing me £38.88. I said goodbye to Pinamonti for a £35.88 loss too. That was tough one for me as I genuinely think he’s a class player but his form this year so far just hasn’t been good enough. Being sentimental doesn’t pay on the Index.
I replaced them with Kulusevski, who I bought on the drop for £1.68. It’s a high price for a youngster in the current climate but he’s demonstrated he has PB potential and at least he’s making the pitch, unlike Alena, who I’ve also added for 96p due to the loan rumours starting to swirl around him.
Overall, a solid week with a total rise of £420. The full breakdown can be found on the separate fund pages. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. Happy trading!