Week 15 – turbulence

‘We’re experiencing some turbulence on the Index right now. Traders should remain seated and strap themselves in. It may be bumpy for a bit, you may spill your coffee and your nerves may rattle, but please rest assured that this plane isn’t going down…’

September as a whole has been a messy month. Tipster wars, injuries to premium players, IPD holds being suffocated with spreads, highly tipped youngsters not even making the bench… it’s no wonder that people are struggling to know where the value is.

Things are turbulent but that doesn’t mean we are all crashing into the sea. Zoom out a little and most traders will see that they are still making money in the long run, and isn’t that what this platform was always meant to be about anyway?

Zooming back in for a minute, at this stage of the season, it’s hard not to come to the conclusion that Premium assets are a bad hold. Pogba is in danger of wracking up a loss for me if he drops much higher, and the likes of Sancho and Sterling have dropped from their recent peaks while the rest have flatlined. There are myriad of reasons for this that go beyond the simple ‘IPDs are better value’ line that crops up so often on social media.

But, truth be told, if I wasn’t locked into this challenge for a year, I may have sold up on this players by now. That isn’t the case as I’m committed to seeing this through, and I’m genuinely curious to see how this plays out. Trends change quickly and we may see a spike on players yet – the January transfer window being the obvious time, if not before. There will still be money to be made in the premium end of the market, even if it’s not in some of the players I’m holding currently.

Is there still money to be made in Performance holds? Absolutely – but timing your purchase right is the key. I added Riccardo Orsolini of Bologna into the fund this week off the back of some promising attacking performances. I caught him in time for the goal and assist against Brescia and his price has carried on rising since.

Some other PB mainstays have done bits for the fund this week and allowed me to turn a small profit – notably Kimmich, Depay and Jordan. If I see Jordan play a full 90 minutes, rather than being hooked off early, I’m topping up.

Talking of topping up, I doubled up on Mendes this week on the basis that Lyon have a great run of fixtures and he’s in the price range that might catch fire if he puts in a good performance (as he’s previously shown he is capable of). Unfortunately, he’s been shit so far.

Plenty of other players in this fund are having a shit time at the moment and I’ve got a couple of them in the queue to market sell, but they just aren’t shifting. Timing is at least as important when it comes to selling, if not more so, as there’s nothing worse than watching your profits drain away because you held on when you should’ve sold at the peak (I’m looking at you Maguire, Havertz, Khazri and Van Dijk!)

With all the excitement about youngsters at the moment, you’d think the Potentials fund would be flying. Actually, it’s still very much hit and miss. More than anything, this fund is where discipline and patience is required – sitting on a flatlining player for weeks or months on end because you believe in them – and then making sure that you sell at the right time when they finally catch a break.

The week, Eric Garcia caught just such a break and flew up to a peak of £1.17. I managed to get out at £1.13 (up from 76p) and took my profits of around £84. I also sold Cunha for a marginal profit, simply because I can’t see him making waves in an RB Leipzig team that’s already stacked with talent. Maybe next year?

The standout performer this week was Håland by a country mile. Topping up last week proved to be an excellent decision as he increased by 87p over the week (38%). For me, he’s unquestionably the breakout star of the season and should be nailed on for a move to a PB league in the summer, and quite possibly the EPL. Unfortunately his name isn’t MB friendly though (due to the spelling variations and non-English character) a bit of a problem and one that FI really ought to have a fix for at this point.

Another MB unfriendly name is Joao Filipe (on FI) AKA ‘Jota’ (the name he’s generally known by). I added him and Calvin Stengs to the fund in the heat of the excitement over non-PB league youngsters that had been generated by Håland’s Champions League performance. It’ll be interesting to see if either of those can catch fire in a similar way in the coming weeks.

Despite a lot of the rest of the fund flatlining, the performance of Håland ensured the Potentials fund netted a profit over the week of nearly £170, or around 4%. The Performance fund managed only about £54, which was cancelled out by the £54 loss of the Premiums.

The full breakdown for the week can be found on the separate fund pages as always. Comments, observations and even ‘tips’ are always welcome!

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