Week 13 – crisis of confidence

We’ve seen a pull-back in the market over the last couple of weeks and some traders have been affected by this more than others. Watching profits slip away, while other traders post their successes on social media, is the perfect storm for a crisis of confidence and rash trading as a result.

So I chose to switch off for a few days, to get a bit of perspective and some time away from the platform. FI is the sort of ‘hobby’ that can easily take over your life if you’re not careful, so switching off every now and then is important – especially when you’re at risk of chasing losses.

What’s gone wrong over the last couple of weeks? I missed a key trend – the international break. This was the first time that FI had added PB and IPD into Euro qualifiers and, as I should’ve expected, this led to money being moved out of premium players and speculative youth, and being put into players who were likely to play in the qualifiers instead (and, of course, IPO targets). This was an obvious move so why did I miss it?

I’m definitely still struggling with the concept of shorter term trading and I’m hanging onto players longer than I probably should have – even past my stop loss point at times. I also think I’ve accumulated more players than I can comfortably manage – 55 now, which means I’m spreading my money quite thinly and trading more passively.

I’m now a quarter of the way through the year so it’s a good time to try to learn from this and play a tighter strategy going forward. This means a few sales but I won’t be overreacting and throwing the baby out with the bathwater as it’s not all be doom and gloom.

The Premiums had another stinker but Neymar is holding his price in dividends alone so I don’t regret adding him to the portfolio. The rest are all long-term prospects so no tinkering there.

The Performance holds are doing the best out of the three. A good week for Savanier, who is carrying high hopes on his return from injury, and Cyprien and Defrel who are all riding the positive sentiment wave at the moment.

The higher priced Performance players fared the worst last week – Van Dijk, Maguire, Havertz, Kimmich, Thiago – as traders clearly see better value elsewhere. I need to look closely at these myself and perhaps find a good exit point.

I called time on Frenkie De Jong as he hadn’t done enough for me (in FI terms) to justify his price, particularly while Barcelona are stuttering. It wasn’t the best exit point – he scored a goal just after I sold him – but I’m glad to see the back of him.

My young Potentials had a poor week on the whole, with the exception of two rising stars – Breel Embolo and Conor Gallagher. Both still have value in my opinion – particularly Gallagher, who is a no-brainer long-term hold for me, and may well end up following the same trajectory as the likes of Mason Mount.

I ditched Cuisance from the fund – his rumoured attitude problems and the difficulty of getting off the bench at Bayern made me question the ongoing value of that hold.

Overall, I finished the week about £32 down, with only the Performance fund managing a (small) profit. The full breakdown can be found on the separate fund pages as always. If you’ve got any thoughts on who I should cut from the funds and who I should keep, feel free to drop me a line.

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