Week 4 – from boom to bust?

Everyone knew that things would be tough after the boom period created by the deposit bonus. June was an incredible month with a lot of traders seeing rises of 10% or more, so some pullback was inevitable. But, unlike after previous deposit bonus periods, serious drops didn’t materialise – just a gentle 1-2% decrease in the most part. This suggests that confidence in FI is high as we head into the new season – a good sign.

So what about my three funds? The Premium fund took the biggest hit of all, but this was related to traders continuing nervousness over Pogba. To me, this doesn’t make a lot of sense. If you are holding him Pogba then you must think he’s staying at United (far too risky otherwise) so this is the period where you pick the most dividends as he agitates for a move (or, more likely, a better contract). Selling now defeats that purpose.

The other premiums all saw a bit of a slide, with the exception of Mbappe, with trader confidence in him continuing to grow as Neymar heads closer to the PSG exit door. Overall, the fund ended the week 1.7% down and with the total fund value just a fraction over it’s original price at the beginning of June. Not so good.

The Performance fund bucked the trend this week, finishing just in the green – £11.17 up. Does this show that traders are beginning to think of the new season and proven PB performers will start to be seen as the ‘safer’ holds on the index? Possibly.

From that fund, the big winners were De Jong, finally being presented as a Barcalona player, and Fabian Ruiz, receiving the ‘best player’ award at the European U21 tournament. Both look great holds for the new season.

The Potential fund finished the week just a fraction down (£9.58). Traders piled into Hudson-Odoi, pushing him up 18p to the lofty heights of £4.51. That price carries some high expectations so holding at this stage is a bit of a risk. On the other hand, he’s still way below his ceiling price and has the potential to pick up MB in the run up to his return, particularly with the Euros on the horizon. I’m holding for now.

Talking about high expectations, Lee Kang-In took the biggest drop of the week – 10p / 7%. Looking at this price, I’m not really surprised and perhaps I should have let him go last week. He’s currently trading at £1.31 – a price which means he will need to hit the ground running when the season begins.

Just one sale this week – Bruno Fernandes left the port for a trading profit of £28.60 plus £2 in dividends. I felt it was time to take the profit, with the risk that the transfer might not go through – and it’s always better to sell when others are buying.

Rather than buy into anyone else, I’ve split the profit across players I wanted to top up: Mollejo, Barrow and Ismaila Sarr. Why those? Partly because all three are forwards, and forwards have a higher ceiling price than other positions because it’s easier to win dividends. I don’t have enough forwards in the port at the moment – something I’ll look at over the next few weeks.

I’ve updated each fund on their relevant pages (links are above). Suggestions for future buys (or sales) are always welcome!

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